SpaceX lock-up expiry on Aug. 6 could add pressure as 912 million shares become eligible for trading

SpaceX’s first post-IPO lock-up period is set to expire on Aug. 6, according to the Financial Times, opening the door for about 912 million shares to enter the market. That figure is roughly twice the company’s current public float. At present, less than 5% of SpaceX’s total shares are tradeable, but the proportion is expected to rise to about 12% after the first lock-up ends. The expected increase in available shares has raised concern over near-term pressure on the stock price. Lock-up expiries often lead to added selling pressure and short-term volatility. Historical data cited in the report shows that such events have on average been associated with a roughly 1.5% decline in share prices, though the actual effect depends on how much investors choose to sell and the level of market demand. Unlike some IPO companies that release all locked shares at once after 180 days, SpaceX is using a phased unlocking structure. A second round of lock-up expiry is expected after the company releases its third-quarter results, which could bring another round of focus to possible stock-price pressure.